An Annual Analysis of Market Conditions

Here at 5Market Realty, we strive to keep our clients and community informed about our local real estate market, and January is the ideal time to review what we experienced over the course of the past year. 

Around our office and in our market updates, I began referring to 2024 as better but not great many times during the year. 2023 was an interesting year due to the lack of inventory, the rising interest rates, and stubborn home prices. At the beginning of the year, our real estate market was positioned for a much better year with more transactions and more homes for sale. The first quarter brought a lot more activity than the previous year, but as time went on the market activity began to slow. The residential market peaked in May as it often does, and we saw fewer sales than we had hoped over the summer months.

Nationally, home sales are expected to be at their lowest totals since the 1990s, but locally our market was more resilient. We always pay close attention to the national trends in real estate, but each market and area of the country can be vastly different. And while home sales nationally were down, our local market did perform better in 2024 than in 2023. 

Home Prices and Home Sales

Home prices have not really fallen off, but the rate and percentage of appreciation is slowing. In Clarke County, the average home price in 2024 was around $425,000 at the end of November. It was $378,000 for the same span of time in 2023. In Oconee County the average sold price last year was $645,000 after eleven months, and it was $621,000 in 2023 which demonstrates the slower year over year appreciation our market has seen. 

The amount of home sales did go up in 2024. January through November there were around 1,500 homes sold in Clarke and Oconee County. The previous year it was below 1,400 homes. The number of new listings also went up in 2024. There were less than 1,800 new listings from January through November in 2023, and about 2,000 new listings during the same period in 2024. 

You may have noticed that signs in your neighborhood are staying up for longer periods of time. It is true that homes are taking longer to sell, but in most cases, they are still selling. In early November, the number of homes on the market was the highest we have seen since before 2020, but it was still well below the number of homes for sale in the years before 2016. We expect to see more homes on the market in 2025, but not enough to shift us into a strong buyer’s market. More than likely, we will see a little more balance and negotiations between buyers and sellers like we did prior to the covid real estate boom. Here is a graph depicting the average number of homes for sale in our area from 2014 through 2016 compared to the last three years. These figures are from the Athens Multiple Listing Service through a data resource called Infosparx. 

What Lies Ahead in 2025

As I have said before, there will always be people who try to speculate on what is going to happen, but the truth is that no one really knows. What we do know is that many factors impact the market and most of them are out of our control. In general, most forecasters seem optimistic about interest rates coming down in 2025. The federal reserve began interest rate cuts in 2024, but please remember that the fed funds rate does not directly impact mortgage rates. In fact, mortgage rates went up a right after the first announcement of rate cuts. 

Mortgage rates tend to follow the ten-year treasury yield. While they are not directly tied to each other they are affected by the same indicators. Historically, mortgage rates have trended about 1.5 to 2 percent higher, but were recently as high as 3 percent. It seems reasonable to think that mortgage rates will be a little lower in the future which would help to improve buyer demand.

I started working in real estate in 2004 and experienced the mortgage crisis as well as the more recent boom through covid. While I cannot predict future, market trends indicate that we are heading back towards more historical norms of activity, but we may never see real estate prices as low as we once did in our area. In 2008, the total mortgage debt in the country exceeded the total equity of homeowners in America. Today, the total equity of homeowners across the country far exceeds the total mortgage debt which would indicate we are not going to see something like we did in 2008. Market conditions are always changing. So, if you are thinking of selling, be sure to price your property appropriately, and if you are needing to find a home, you must deal with the market conditions now versus trying to predict them or trying to time the market. 

Please note that the numbers and figures discussed in this article are calculated specifically for Clarke County and Oconee County from the Athens Area Association of Realtors’ Multiple Listing Service (Classic MLS). They do not include properties listed For Sale by Owner or in another Multiple Listing Service. 

If you are interested in following our local real estate market and staying up to date, you can follow our YouTube channel @athensgahomes or email [email protected] to receive our video market updates. Lastly, if you have a business in the area and would be interested in having us feature you in upcoming issues, please reach out to us as well.

A version of this article originally appeared in the print edition of Stroll Magazine – Five Points.