Georgia Football: Pre-Season Predictions and Prognostications – 2019

Well college football is back and even the temperature is starting to feel like football at a cool 64 degrees here in Athens this morning.  I have been doing these football posts over the last several seasons for fun, and because most people don’t really care about real estate until it is their time to make a move.  In some past instances, these posts were therapeutic for me after bad losses, but thanks to Kirby I don’t need to vent near as much during the football season.   I was going to skip it this year, but as the season got closer, I began to think it might be bad luck not to write one.  I am a superstitious person when it comes to certain things.  It is silly I know, and I even have one friend that says, “I am superstitious because I think I am the center of the universe”.  That’s right, a friend says this to me, and I am not offended, because he is just a smart ass from Albany so what does he know anyway.  Now that I have taken a shot at a good friend, I can get into the actual predictions.

  • UGA vs Vanderbilt– Everyone seems to think Georgia is going to be great and just run right through ole Vandy on Saturday night.  As the Florida game showed last week, first games can be a little sloppy.  I expect this one to be closer than the experts think for 3 or so quarters.  Georgia wins 31 to 17 in Nashville.
  • UGA vs Murray State & Arkansas State- No we are not playing these two teams at once, but that could be fun to watch. I am wrapping these two together because the outcome should be a certainty.  Georgia will win these two games with ease.
  • UGA vs Notre Dame – This game has a ton of hype and every 5 Points resident in Athens is scrambling to figure out VRBO or Airbnb. I have even rented out my house to some UGA fans celebrating a birthday.  Honestly, I already regret it because I want to be in my own house after a long day of tailgating and the game.  Regardless, Notre Dame is going to be good this year, and they will be ready to play.  This could be a trendy upset pic if Georgia looks bad in Nashville.  But I think the home field helps Georgia to a close win.  I see something like 20 to 17.
  • UGA vs Tennessee- Here is another game too many fans just think is a given. Let me be the first to say, I was wrong about Jeremy Pruitt.  Well at least to this point.  I think he is doing a good job, and his version of the Volunteers is much better coached and much tougher than in years past.  I hate to say it, but the Dawgs may not get out of Knoxville with a win.  34 to 31 Volunteers over Georgia
  • UGA vs South Carolina – This will be a much needed get right game for the Bulldogs. Unfortunately, the Gamecocks will bear the brunt of Georgia’s anger over the loss in Knoxville.  I think Georgia comes out and wins big at home.  51 to 17
  • Georgia vs Kentucky – Back to back home games will be just what the doctor ordered for Bulldog nation as Georgia will easily win this one. Kentucky is much better coached these days, but they lost too much talent last year.   Georgia rolls over them 45 to 10
  • Georgia vs Florida – Boy do I hate me some Gators. How about that Felipe Franks last week?  That guy loves the camera, and Mullen just smiles as he struts around the sidelines.  I don’t think Felipe Franks will start this game.  I expect Emory Jones will have taken over the reigns for the Gators by this point.  This will make for another good first half, but Georgia will pull away in the second half. Georgia over Florida 45 to 21.
  • Georgia vs Missouri – We all know that Missouri has an easy schedule heading into this one. They could be undefeated, and it will make for a big match up.  But Georgia will have already made their mistake by this point in the season.  Big win here and Georgia goes back into the national conversation after winning by 20.
  • Georgia vs Auburn – Who knows how good Auburn will be this year, and we all know they are hard to play at home. But I tend to think Gus is sadly entering his last season as Auburn’s football coach. I wish he could stay forever, but good things never seem to last.   Georgia will win this by 17 or so.  Let’s say 38 to 21.
  • Georgia vs Texas A & M – This is one of the games most fans think Georgia will lose, and I can understand their thinking. The schedule is fun for fans, but a real test for the team. Especially, if they can make it into the Benz or heaven forbid the playoffs.  I am going to go back to my thoughts on home field advantage in the Notre Dame game.  I think the home crowd proves to be a helpful factor in getting the Dawgs over the Aggies.  Georgia wins 42 to 28.
  • Georgia vs GA Tech – A real bad beat down in this one with a lot of red in Bobby Dodd stadium. A real bad day for any Tech fan.  Should be hysterical to watch so be sure to tune in.  56 to 10 Georgia.
  • Georgia vs LSU (SEC Championship) – That’s right! No Alabama in the championship game.  It’s really not too surprising as it happened in 2017.  I think Bama’s loses at least once and it will keep them out of Atlanta.  LSU will be good, but the neutral site game will not provide them any edge over Georgia.  The Dawgs will get some payback after the bad loss in 2018 down in Baton Rouge.  Georgia wins 35 to 14.

Playoff Scenario

  1. Clemson
  2. Georgia
  3. Ohio State
  4. Alabama

Semi Final Game 1 – Georgia vs Ohio State- This one is going to be all hype as Jake Fromm goes against Justin Fields and the Buckeyes.  I mean can you imagine.  Well you better imagine because I think it really might happen.  I like Georgia in this one.  38 to 10

Semi Final Game 2 – Bama vs Clemson – Bama will pull this one out because Clemson’s defensive line is not loaded with seniors like they were last year.

National Championship- Georgia vs Alabama- Well here we go again. Can Georgia get over the hump?  Can Kirby win the big game?  Did you know that no former assistant has ever beaten Nick Saban?  It will be all the same talk again.  But as a Georgia fan would you want it any other way?  It would be like becoming the heavyweight champion because Ali retired, or Mike Tyson went to jail.  As Ric Flair said, “To be the man you have to BEAT the man”, and despite Clemson’s success, Bama is THE MAN.  Georgia is going to win it too.  Not in dramatic fashion or because Tua got hurt, but because they are just better.  No score prediction here as I think it would be bad luck.  Ha-ha

Well there you have it.  A point of view on Georgia’s season from a real estate guy in Athens.  So, it may not be worth much, but it’s my opinion.  Texas, Washington, and Oklahoma will have something to say about the playoff for sure, but ultimately, I think Ohio State wins over Michigan and that gets them in the playoff.  Bama will make it in because life isn’t fair.   Should be a fun year and don’t forget to watch GA Tech get humiliated on the ACC Network tonight.  Go Dawgs!

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A Tale of Two Houses & Why Pricing Matters

The real estate market has been strong over the last several years especially here in Athens.  We have seen the supply and demand graph tilt way towards demand and home values appreciate quickly.  This has been great for homeowners but stressful for buyers.  And like I have said many times, “Trees Don’t Grow to the Sky”.  At some point, the appreciation will slow down and I think we have seen that happen in some parts of our market.  On the other hand, some areas are still growing rapidly in value.  I have seen two examples recently of pricing in my business and I want to go over them best I can to offer some insight.

 

Example 1:  Pricing Aggressively but Correctly

This past summer I had a property listing that was one of the nicest homes in the subdivision.  Cul-de-sac lot, high end finishes, 5,000 square feet, and a full basement.  However, this neighborhood was low on sale comps and the home sizes varied greatly as well.  There were only two comps in the last 14 months and neither of them were very comparable to my listing which made pricing very hard if I was going to help my client get top dollar.  To do my job well, I needed to dig further and look outside the immediate neighborhood.  Once I did that, I began to realize we could justify a price well over $100,000 more than the most recent sale.  Once we hit the market, I got immediate feedback from a colleague with clients that loved the house.  This realtor, who has lived in Athens less than two years by the way, had clients moving from up north and they didn’t see any way the home was worth so much.  What was even more frustrating is that the other agent kept explaining the comps to me from down the street and even emailed me MLS listings from the area. Think about that for a minute.  Do you really think, I am going to get that email and say, “Geez, you know what? Your right!  I didn’t think to look at any sale comps.  I am a total idiot.  I will call my clients and tell them to drop the price immediately.”  Surely you can sense my sarcasm.  I love it when three people not well versed in Athens or our market explain property values to me.  It reminds me of an old Lewis Grizzard joke where he told the fellow, “The second you start telling us how you did it up in Cincinnati, Delta will be ready and waiting to take you back”.  Long and short, we told them to go pound sand.  About two weeks later, we found our buyers who loved the home and understood its value.  We sold very close to asking price and the appraisal even came in $5,000 over the contract price making the buyers happy, the sellers happy, and the neighbors happy with the adjusted home values.

Example 2:  Pricing Too Aggressively

Now that I have bragged on myself, I will give myself some criticism as well.  Pricing is tricky and you need to do it right or risk missing your buyer.  This past year in another area of town I let a client price a home too high.  I am just as guilty for going along with it, and I have vowed to never let it happen again.  In the beginning. I had reasons to agree to it, but I will never make that mistake again.  Pricing this one too high cost us maybe two or three buyers, and ultimately the price had to come way down to find a buyer in the end.  In hindsight, I should have refused to take the listing at anything higher than my original price recommendation.  Unfortunately, I had to chalk this one up to a mistake and a lesson re-learned in real estate.

Thinks He Knows it All

My point here is that pricing might be the most important part of selling your home.  Nowadays, thanks to Zillow, social media, and technology in general some people seem to think they know more than they actually do in reality.  In some cases, large corporations and companies seem to think they can make realtors obsolete or irrelevant in 5 to 10 years with use of apps and sight unseen offers.  But try to remember this simple premise. “You don’t know what you don’t know”, and if you don’t work full time in real estate there is plenty you might not know or understand in the market.  So, find someone you know and trust in real estate to help you.  If you choose wisely it will make you more money, not COST you more money.

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